---
id: "quote-vc-logic"
type: "quote"
source_timestamps: ["§ Optimizing for the Unknown"]
tags: ["capital-allocation", "venture-capital"]
related: ["action-stage-gate-capital", "concept-optionality"]
speaker: "Toby E. Stuart"
speakers: ["Toby E. Stuart"]
quote: "It'll be necessary to replace the question, \\\\\\\"What is the 10-year return on this investment?\\\\\\\" with \\\\\\\"What is the smallest commitment we can make now that buys us information and the right, but not the obligation, to follow on with more capital?\\\\\\\""
sources: ["futures"]
sourceVaultSlug: "hbr-seg-futures"
originDay: 2
articleStem: "hbr-foci-72-future-ai-fog"
sourceUrl: "https://hbr.org/2026/04/the-future-is-shrouded-in-an-ai-fog"
sourceTitle: "The Future Is Shrouded in an AI Fog"
---
# Adopting VC Logic for Corporate Capital

The exact question corporate leaders should substitute for the 10-year-return question — the operational heart of [[concept-optionality]] and [[action-stage-gate-capital]].

> "It'll be necessary to replace the question, 'What is the 10-year return on this investment?' with 'What is the smallest commitment we can make now that buys us information and the right, but not the obligation, to follow on with more capital?'"
> — [[entity-toby-e-stuart|Toby E. Stuart]]

This is textbook **real options** phrasing (see [[prereq-real-options]]).