---
id: "quote-skyscrapers-vs-tents"
type: "quote"
source_timestamps: ["¶2"]
tags: ["metaphor", "investment-horizon"]
related: ["concept-ai-fog"]
speaker: "Toby E. Stuart"
speakers: ["Toby E. Stuart"]
quote: "There's always some uncertainty, but when you're confident about your ability to see 30 years ahead, you build a skyscraper and a railway. When you can see months ahead, you pitch a tent and buy a bicycle."
sources: ["futures"]
sourceVaultSlug: "hbr-seg-futures"
originDay: 2
articleStem: "hbr-foci-72-future-ai-fog"
sourceUrl: "https://hbr.org/2026/04/the-future-is-shrouded-in-an-ai-fog"
sourceTitle: "The Future Is Shrouded in an AI Fog"
---
# Skyscrapers vs. Tents Metaphor

The signature metaphor contrasting decision-making under certainty versus extreme uncertainty — the emotional core of [[concept-ai-fog]].

> "There's always some uncertainty, but when you're confident about your ability to see 30 years ahead, you build a skyscraper and a railway. When you can see months ahead, you pitch a tent and buy a bicycle."
> — [[entity-toby-e-stuart|Toby E. Stuart]]

**Note:** The 'Living Plans' counter-view ([[contrarian-corporate-planning]]) is explicitly titled 'Don't Trade Skyscrapers for Tents,' arguing the right response is adaptive planning, not smaller bets.