---
id: "quote-risk-vs-uncertainty"
type: "quote"
source_timestamps: ["§ The Human Capital Dilemma"]
tags: ["economics", "probability"]
related: ["concept-risk-vs-uncertainty"]
speaker: "Toby E. Stuart"
speakers: ["Toby E. Stuart"]
quote: "Risk is quantifiable; one can assign probabilities that allow us to price a bet. Uncertainty describes environments where the probability distribution itself is unknown, which is the precise consequence of invisibility."
sources: ["futures"]
sourceVaultSlug: "hbr-seg-futures"
originDay: 2
articleStem: "hbr-foci-72-future-ai-fog"
sourceUrl: "https://hbr.org/2026/04/the-future-is-shrouded-in-an-ai-fog"
sourceTitle: "The Future Is Shrouded in an AI Fog"
---
# Defining Uncertainty in the AI Era

The article's crisp statement of the Knightian distinction underpinning [[concept-risk-vs-uncertainty]].

> "Risk is quantifiable; one can assign probabilities that allow us to price a bet. Uncertainty describes environments where the probability distribution itself is unknown, which is the precise consequence of invisibility."
> — [[entity-toby-e-stuart|Toby E. Stuart]]