---
id: "quote-minson-affective"
type: "quote"
source_timestamps: ["§ Common Causes of False Alignment"]
tags: ["conflict", "psychology"]
related: ["concept-affective-forecasting-error", "entity-julia-minson"]
speaker: "Julia Minson"
speakers: ["Julia Minson"]
sources: ["governance"]
sourceVaultSlug: "hbr-seg-governance"
originDay: 7
articleStem: "hbr-cl-85-false-alignment-trap"
sourceUrl: "https://hbr.org/2026/07/the-false-alignment-trap"
sourceTitle: "The False Alignment Trap"
---
# Julia Minson on Affective Forecasting Error

> People "expect holders of opposing views to disagree with [us] more dramatically than turns out to be the case."

— [[entity-julia-minson|Julia Minson]], Harvard professor

A summary of the finding behind [[concept-affective-forecasting-error|affective forecasting error]]: we systematically over-predict how sharp and unpleasant disagreement will be, which is why leaders avoid the very conflict that would produce [[concept-true-agreement|true agreement]].