---
id: "prereq-real-options-thinking"
type: "prereq"
source_timestamps: ["§ Type 2: Option Value"]
tags: ["finance", "valuation"]
related: ["concept-option-value-investment"]
reason: "Required to understand the financial logic and valuation method proposed for Type 2 (Option Value) AI investments."
sources: ["spine"]
sourceVaultSlug: "hbr-seg-spine"
originDay: 1
articleStem: "hbr-edu-47-5-types-ai-investment"
sourceUrl: "https://hbr.org/2026/06/the-5-types-of-ai-investment-and-how-to-capture-their-value"
sourceTitle: "The 5 Types of AI Investment–and How to Capture Their Value"
---
# Real-Options Thinking

**Prerequisite for:** [[concept-option-value-investment|Type 2: Option Value]].

**What you need to know.** The value of Type 2 AI investments is determined using *real-options thinking* — financial options theory applied to business decisions. Specifically: how to value an investment that grants the *right, but not the obligation*, to undertake certain business initiatives in the future, **even when the net present value (NPV) of the immediate project is negative**.

**Why it matters here.** Without this lens, a Type 2 learning investment (like [[entity-moderna-d1|Moderna's]] mChat) looks like a money-loser under standard NPV/ROI. Real-options thinking is what makes its future-flexibility value legible. The enrichment overlay confirms this is the natural finance lens for the option-value bucket.