---
id: "question-ai-boom-or-bust"
type: "open-question"
source_timestamps: ["¶1", "§ Be realistic about the complexities of the AI age."]
tags: ["market-cycles", "ai-economics"]
related: ["action-plan-ai-bust", "concept-ai-amplification-effect"]
resolutionPath: "Monitoring the ROI of enterprise AI deployments over the next 2-3 years and tracking the valuation stability of frontier AI labs post-IPO."
sources: ["futures"]
sourceVaultSlug: "hbr-seg-futures"
originDay: 2
articleStem: "hbr-foci-75-fragmenting-digital-economy"
sourceUrl: "https://hbr.org/2026/06/what-a-fragmenting-digital-economy-means-for-global-competition"
sourceTitle: "What a Fragmenting Digital Economy Means for Global Competition"
---
# Will the AI Boom Lead to a Bust?

**Open question:** Will the unprecedented investments in AI and the mega-IPOs of frontier AI labs **pay off, or lead to a bust**? The source poses this explicitly and advises firms to prepare contingency plans for *stranded assets* (see [[action-plan-ai-bust]]).

**Resolution path:** Monitor the ROI of enterprise AI deployments over the next 2–3 years and track the valuation stability of frontier AI labs post-IPO. Connects directly to the [[concept-ai-amplification-effect]] — if the amplification stalls, the winner-takes-most bet becomes a liability.


## Related across articles
- [[claim-bubble-timing-distortion]]
- [[concept-stranded-assets]]
- [[question-enterprise-demand-timing]]