---
id: "claim-ecommerce-stall"
type: "claim"
source_timestamps: ["¶2"]
source_title: "The Comeback of the Physical Store—and What It Means for Your Business"
source_url: "https://hbr.org/2026/04/the-comeback-of-the-physical-store-and-what-it-means-for-your-business"
tags: ["macro-trends", "e-commerce-data"]
related: ["concept-dtc-stall", "contrarian-ecommerce-stagnation"]
confidence: "medium"
testable: true
speakers: ["Frank V. Cespedes", "Pietro Satriano"]
sources: ["tail1"]
sourceVaultSlug: "hbr-seg-tail1"
originDay: 1
articleStem: "hbr-tail-114-comeback-physical-store"
sourceUrl: "https://hbr.org/2026/04/the-comeback-of-the-physical-store-and-what-it-means-for-your-business"
sourceTitle: "The Comeback of the Physical Store—and What It Means for Your Business"
---
# E-commerce market share growth has stalled since 2020

**Claim:** According to Census Bureau data, e-commerce as a portion of U.S. retail sales in 2025 was **16.4%**, barely above the **16.3%** it reached during Q2 2020 (maximum pandemic lockdowns). Annual increases in e-commerce share over the past four years have been the lowest since the Great Recession of 2008–2009. Grounds the broader [[concept-dtc-stall]] and the contrarian framing in [[contrarian-ecommerce-stagnation]].

**Source confidence:** high (as stated in-source).

> **Enrichment check — downgraded to MEDIUM.** The 16.4% figure holds on the **Census-only** series (Q1 2026 sits at 16.8–16.9%), but Digital Commerce 360's broader denominator puts 2025 at **23.1%**. Crucially, Q1 2026 Census data show e-commerce still growing **9.8% YoY** — the 'lowest annual growth since the Great Recession' half of the claim is **not supported** by any provided source. Cite the plateau-in-share reading, not the growth-has-collapsed reading.