---
id: "concept-true-circulating-supply"
type: "concept"
source_timestamps: ["15:09:00", "16:24:00"]
tags: ["tokenomics", "scarcity", "lost-coins"]
related: ["claim-bitcoin-market-cap-calculation"]
definition: "The actual number of Bitcoin available for trade, which is significantly lower than the total mined supply due to millions of permanently lost or inaccessible coins."
sources: ["carlasare"]
sourceVaultSlug: "cardone-carlasare-bitcoin-macro-2026Jun25"
originDay: 3
---
# Bitcoin's True Circulating Supply

## Definition

The *effective* liquid Bitcoin supply, after subtracting coins that are permanently lost, burned, or have been provably dormant for an extended period.

## The Headline vs. the Reality

- **Hard cap:** 21,000,000 BTC
- **Mined so far:** ~19.7M BTC
- **Estimated permanently lost:** 3–6M BTC (varies by methodology)
- **[[entity-joe-carlasare|Carlasare]]'s working estimate of true liquid supply:** ~14–15M BTC

The lost cohort includes:

1. The ~1.1M coins mined by [[entity-satoshi-nakamoto|Satoshi Nakamoto]] in 2009–2010 that have never moved (the "Patoshi pattern" coins).
2. Coins lost by early adopters who discarded hardware, forgot keys, or never imagined the asset would be worth anything.
3. Provably burned outputs (e.g., sends to unspendable addresses).

## Important Nuance (from enrichment)

- Chainalysis (2017) estimated 2.78–3.79M lost; later on-chain analyses from Glassnode, Unchained, and others typically land at 3–4M+ depending on dormancy thresholds.
- Satoshi coins are *widely assumed* unrecoverable but not *provably* lost.
- The precise figure of 14–15M is an informed estimate, not a known fact.

## Why It Matters

If scarcity is the asset's primary value driver, a 25–30% reduction in *effective* supply tightens the float meaningfully and directly affects the market-cap math discussed in [[claim-bitcoin-market-cap-calculation]].

## Related

- [[claim-bitcoin-market-cap-calculation]]
- [[entity-satoshi-nakamoto]]


## Related across days
- [[entity-satoshi-nakamoto]]
- [[claim-bitcoin-market-cap-calculation]]
- [[concept-the-halving]]