---
id: "concept-the-halving"
type: "concept"
source_timestamps: ["00:07:31", "00:07:58"]
tags: ["tokenomics", "supply-shock", "deflation"]
related: ["concept-digital-hard-asset", "claim-bitcoin-price-prediction"]
definition: "A programmed event occurring roughly every four years that cuts the new supply of Bitcoin issued to miners by 50%."
sources: ["erictrump"]
sourceVaultSlug: "cardone-eric-trump-genoot-abtc-bitcoin-2026Jun25"
originDay: 2
---
# The Halving (Deflationary Supply)

## Definition

A programmed event occurring roughly every four years that cuts the new supply of Bitcoin issued to miners by 50%.

## Mechanics

Unlike fiat currencies — which are inflationary by design because central banks can expand the money supply (see [[prereq-fiat-inflation]]) — Bitcoin is programmed to be **deflationary in issuance**.

The core mechanism is the Halving:
- Programmed into Bitcoin's base code, the block reward to miners is cut in half approximately every four years.
- [[entity-asher-genoot]] notes the network recently went from producing **900 new Bitcoin per day down to 450 per day**.
- This continues until the **hard cap of 21 million Bitcoin** is reached, estimated around the year **2140**.

## Why it matters

The Halving creates recurring, predictable **supply shocks**. If demand remains constant or increases while the new supply entering the market is cut in half, the price must theoretically rise. This predictable, programmatic scarcity is the primary driver of Bitcoin's long-term value proposition.

It is the supply-side mechanism that [[entity-eric-trump]] points to when forecasting Bitcoin above $500,000 in [[claim-bitcoin-price-prediction]]. It is also a major ingredient in [[concept-digital-hard-asset]] — the harder the issuance schedule, the harder the asset.

## Caveat

The halving is a real, well-established protocol fact. The price *prediction* downstream of it ([[claim-bitcoin-price-prediction]]) is a forecast, not a derivation — demand may not respond linearly, and macro conditions are exogenous to the protocol.


## Related across days
- [[concept-infinite-half-life]]
- [[claim-bitcoin-1m-2030]]
- [[concept-true-circulating-supply]]