---
id: "claim-fed-rate-cuts"
type: "claim"
source_timestamps: ["00:12:49", "00:13:06"]
tags: ["federal-reserve", "monetary-policy", "predictions"]
related: ["claim-fed-funds-rate-target"]
confidence: "high"
testable: true
speakers: ["Jared Dillian"]
sources: ["dillian"]
sourceVaultSlug: "jared-dillian-macro-trading-wealth-2026Jun25"
originDay: 6
---
# The Fed will execute two 25bps rate cuts before year-end

## Claim

The [[entity-federal-reserve]] will execute **two more 25-basis-point rate cuts** before the end of the current calendar year.

### Caveat
[[entity-jared-dillian]] adds that if economic data comes in particularly weak, one of those cuts could be **upsized to 50 bps**, resulting in a total of **100 bps** of cutting before year-end.

## Confidence & Testability

- **Confidence**: High
- **Testable**: Yes — directly observable via FOMC actions
- **Enrichment caveat**: Forecast inherently time-bound. The Fed can delay or moderate cuts if inflation re-accelerates.

## Connection

This is the near-term step toward the longer-term destination in [[claim-fed-funds-rate-target]] (2.5–3.0% by Q1). The cutting is driven by [[claim-labor-market-weakening]] and politically reinforced per [[claim-trump-fed-pressure]].

## Related

- [[claim-fed-funds-rate-target]]
- [[claim-labor-market-weakening]]
- [[claim-trump-fed-pressure]]
- [[entity-federal-reserve]]


## Related across days
- [[claim-fed-funds-rate-target]]
- [[claim-mortgage-rates-dropping]]
- [[claim-trump-fed-pressure]]