---
id: "claim-bitcoin-tam"
type: "claim"
source_timestamps: ["00:40:41", "00:41:03"]
tags: ["bitcoin", "price-prediction", "macroeconomics"]
related: ["concept-store-of-value-basket", "claim-bitcoin-1m-2030", "entity-cbo"]
confidence: "high"
testable: true
speakers: ["Mark Moss"]
sources: ["markmoss"]
sourceVaultSlug: "mark-moss-debasement-trade-bitcoin-2026Jun25"
originDay: 5
---
# Bitcoin will capture 8% of the global store of value basket by 2040

## Claim

> Bitcoin will capture **~8% of the global store-of-value basket by 2040**, implying a price of roughly **$14M per coin**.

Moss extends the model further: ~1.25% share by 2030 ($1M/BTC), ~8% by 2040 ($14M/BTC), ~20% by 2050 ($45M/BTC).

## Reasoning

The argument depends on the [[concept-store-of-value-basket]] as Bitcoin's Total Addressable Market:

1. Today: ~$1 quadrillion ($1,000T) global store-of-value assets.
2. Drawing on [[entity-cbo]] long-term debt and deficit projections, Moss estimates the basket inflates to **~$8.5 quadrillion by 2040** due to continuous fiat debasement.
3. Bitcoin currently represents a microscopic fraction of this global wealth.
4. As Bitcoin's properties as a superior, frictionless, digital store of value are widely recognized, it absorbs capital from gold, bonds, real estate, and equities.
5. Capture rate ≈ 8% → market cap ≈ $680 trillion → ~$32M+ per coin (Moss publicly cites $14M as a more conservative number using slightly different assumptions about cycle and supply).

## Internal Consistency

The arithmetic is consistent across Moss's published forecasts. See related: [[claim-bitcoin-1m-2030]] (the near-term anchor).

## Confidence: HIGH (Moss's own)

**Testability:** YES — the basket size and Bitcoin's market cap share are both measurable in 2040.

## External Validation

No mainstream macro or asset-allocation literature currently forecasts Bitcoin capturing 8–20% of all global store-of-value assets by 2040. This is a **proprietary, speculative forecast** by Moss and aligned Bitcoin maximalists (Saylor, ARK, Fidelity Digital Assets have published similar high-valuation scenarios with varying timelines).

## Key Risks to the Claim

- Competition from stablecoins, CBDCs, and tokenized securities.
- Regulatory bans or capital controls in major economies.
- Unprecedented adoption curve required — no asset has ever absorbed 8%+ of global store-of-value in this short a timeframe.


## Related across days
- [[claim-bitcoin-1m-2030]]
- [[concept-store-of-value-basket]]
- [[claim-bitcoin-price-prediction]]