---
id: "claim-10-year-yield-drop"
type: "claim"
source_timestamps: ["00:03:48", "00:03:53"]
tags: ["bond-market", "interest-rates", "predictions"]
related: ["concept-yield-curve-dynamics", "claim-mortgage-rates-dropping"]
confidence: "high"
testable: true
speakers: ["Jared Dillian"]
sources: ["dillian"]
sourceVaultSlug: "jared-dillian-macro-trading-wealth-2026Jun25"
originDay: 6
---
# 10-year Treasury yields will drop to 3.5%

## Claim

Alongside cuts to the short-term Fed Funds rate, the yield on the **10-year Treasury** note will decline to approximately **3.5%**.

## Reasoning

The 10-year Treasury is a benchmark for many consumer and corporate loans, including mortgages. This drop is a **necessary precondition** for [[claim-mortgage-rates-dropping]] (5.5% mortgages) given typical mortgage-Treasury spreads.

See [[concept-yield-curve-dynamics]] for the mechanism by which short-rate cuts propagate to the long end.

## Confidence & Testability

- **Confidence**: High
- **Testable**: Yes — directly observable via daily Treasury yield publication
- **Enrichment note**: The video already records an unusual setup where long rates were falling nearly as much as short rates in anticipation of Fed action, consistent with market pricing of policy easing.

## Related

- [[concept-yield-curve-dynamics]]
- [[claim-mortgage-rates-dropping]]
- [[claim-fed-funds-rate-target]]