---
id: "question-ad-dollar-migration"
type: "open-question"
source_timestamps: ["00:04:55", "00:06:40"]
tags: ["advertising", "market-dynamics"]
related: ["concept-conversational-advertising"]
resolutionPath: "Tracking the revenue growth of programmatic ad networks integrating with LLMs versus the quarterly ad revenue declines of traditional search engines like Google."
sources: ["s17-3-model-drops"]
sourceVaultSlug: "s17-3-model-drops"
originDay: 17
---
# Where Will Search Ad Dollars Migrate?

## Question

If conversational AI interfaces successfully collapse the purchase funnel and erode traditional search engine usage, where does the **~$600B global search advertising budget** go?

## Why It's Open

Two plausible terminal states exist, and they have very different winners:

1. **AI platforms capture the value directly.** [[entity-openai-d17]] and peers monetize their own ad surfaces, becoming primary ad networks — extracting [[entity-google]]'s margin into their own P&L.
2. **Third-party ad-tech bridges the gap.** [[entity-criteo]] and similar programmatic networks become the connective tissue between existing advertisers and new AI surfaces. Frontier labs stay focused on model R&D and let ad-tech monetize.

## Resolution Path

Track quarterly:
- Revenue growth of programmatic ad networks integrating with LLMs.
- Quarterly ad revenue trajectory of traditional search engines (especially [[entity-google]]).
- OpenAI/Anthropic ad disclosures, if any.

## Related
- [[concept-conversational-advertising]]
- [[concept-collapsed-purchase-funnel]]
- [[claim-criteo-conversion]]
- [[entity-google]] · [[entity-openai-d17]] · [[entity-criteo]]